Norbert Losing Strength

Tropical Storm Norbert is about 1125 miles easterly of Hilo & moving westerly at about 15 mph. It has maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph. It is expected to weaken & become a post-tropical cyclone tomorrow, when it does it will no longer be tracked by the National Hurricane Center.

The disturbance noted on Saturday in the Eastern Pacific region, has now become Tropical Depression Fifteen-C. It is located about 785 miles southwesterly of the southern tip of Baja California & is moving west-southwesterly at about 9 mph. It is expected to weaken over the next few days & may never make it in to the Central Pacific region.

Norbert Might Not Make It

It looks like Tropical Storm Norbert is getting weaker sooner than anticipated. The current warning cone shows Norbert crossing in to the Central Pacific region late tomorrow afternoon. But then it also shows Norbert becoming a depression the following day with no further modeling showing its approach towards us for the remaining 3 days of the 5-day forecast. Currently, Norbert is about 1465 miles easterly of Hilo & has maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph; it is moving westerly at about 12 mph. There are no other disturbances in the Central Pacific region. 

What Will Norbert Do?

Tropical Storm Norbert is predicted to enter the Central Pacific region late Monday evening or early Tuesday morning. It is currently located about 1760 miles easterly of Hilo. Its maximum sustained winds are about 60 mph & it is moving westerly at about 10 mph. The models currently show Norbert tracking towards the south of us & never reaching hurricane status. But like all other approaching storms, we need to keep an eye on it & see what really happens.

There is a disturbance several hundred miles southeasterly of us. It is given only a 10% chance of becoming a more organized tropical cyclone in the next 7 days; it does not seem like it will become a problem but it will still be watched until it dissipates. Just in case.

There is also a disturbance in the Eastern Pacific region easterly of Tropical Storm Norbert. It has been given a 90% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days. It will be closely watched since most of the hurricanes & tropical storms that come our way are formed in the Eastern Pacific region. 

Tropical Storm Norbert

Tropical Storm Norbert formed last night in the Eastern Pacific region. Currently it has maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph but is predicated to gradually strengthen over the next few days. It is moving westerly at about 14 mph & expected to enter the Central Pacific region sometime on Tuesday as a hurricane.

Lowell Leaving Area

Tropical Storm Lowell is now about 460 miles north-northwesterly of Lihue & moving north-northwesterly at about 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to about 60 mph & more weakening is anticipated over the next few days. Unless Lowell turns around & heads back to where we are this is the last I will report on its path.

There is a disturbance in the Central Pacific region south-southeasterly of us. It is slowly moving north-northwesterly & is forecast to have about a 20% chance of developing in to a tropical depression within the next 7 days. 

Lowell Now Past Kauaʻi & Niʻihau

The eye of Hurricane Lowell has now moved past Niʻihau & Kauaʻi; there are still tropical storm force winds moving by the islands. Here are the forecast cones starting with last night at 8 pm & going through this morning at 8 am. It appears Lowell was closest to Niʻihau around midnight. FYI The hurricane centers normally issue the public advisories & forecast cones for storms in the Central Pacific region at 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, & 11 pm HST if there is nothing out of the ordinary. If there is an important change in the path or strength of a storm an intermediate advisory & forecast cone is issued as needed.

Lowell ~135 miles southwesterly of Lihue; hurricane winds extend ~70 miles, tropical storm winds ~175 miles. 

Lowell ~90 miles westerly of Lihue; hurricane winds extend ~70 miles, tropical storm winds ~195 miles  .

Lowell ~110 miles northwesterly of Lihue; hurricane winds extend ~70 miles, tropical storm winds ~195 miles.

Lowell ~145 miles northwesterly of Lihue; hurricane winds extend ~70 miles, tropical storm winds ~245 miles.

Lowell ~190 miles north-northwesterly of Lihue; hurricane force winds out to 70 miles, tropical storm force winds ~230 miles.

 

Marie is the only other storm currently close to the Central Pacific region. Post Tropical Cyclone Marie is about 780 miles southwesterly of San Diego. Wind speeds have decreased to about 40 mph; it is moving west-northwesterly at about 9 mph. It is expected to steadily weaken over the next couple of days & dissipate. This is the last public advisory that will be issued by the National Hurricane Center about Marie.

Lowell Nearing Kauaʻi & Niʻihau

There are now only 2 storms that appear on the 7-day outlook map of the Central Pacific region. Category 3 Hurricane Lowell is the one we need to be concerned about. It is currently about 325 miles south-southwesterly of Lihue & moving north-northeasterly at about 15 mph. A hurricane warning is in effect for Kauaʻi & Niʻihau where damaging winds are expected to arrive this afternoon or evening. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Oʻahu where lower speed winds are expected during the same time period. Currently Lowell has maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph with hurricane force winds extending about 60 miles from the center & tropical storm force winds extending about 175 miles. Winds are expected to gradually decrease through Tuesday but Lowell is still expected to remain a hurricane. Higher than normal rainfall is expected on all islands with Kauaʻi & Niʻihau receiving the highest amounts expected at 6" to 10". The rest of the main islands are expected to have rainfalls of 4" to 8"; my kalo will be very happy!

Marie is still around but has been downgraded to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph. Marie is about 705 miles southwesterly of San Diego & moving west-northwesterly at about 6 mph. Marie is expected to weaken steadily over the next couple of days, becoming a post-tropical remnant low on Wednesday. Its only effect on southern California has been in producing dangerous surf conditions.