Lowell Leaving Area

Tropical Storm Lowell is now about 460 miles north-northwesterly of Lihue & moving north-northwesterly at about 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to about 60 mph & more weakening is anticipated over the next few days. Unless Lowell turns around & heads back to where we are this is the last I will report on its path.

There is a disturbance in the Central Pacific region south-southeasterly of us. It is slowly moving north-northwesterly & is forecast to have about a 20% chance of developing in to a tropical depression within the next 7 days. 

Lowell Now Past Kauaʻi & Niʻihau

The eye of Hurricane Lowell has now moved past Niʻihau & Kauaʻi; there are still tropical storm force winds moving by the islands. Here are the forecast cones starting with last night at 8 pm & going through this morning at 8 am. It appears Lowell was closest to Niʻihau around midnight. FYI The hurricane centers normally issue the public advisories & forecast cones for storms in the Central Pacific region at 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, & 11 pm HST if there is nothing out of the ordinary. If there is an important change in the path or strength of a storm an intermediate advisory & forecast cone is issued as needed.

Lowell ~135 miles southwesterly of Lihue; hurricane winds extend ~70 miles, tropical storm winds ~175 miles. 

Lowell ~90 miles westerly of Lihue; hurricane winds extend ~70 miles, tropical storm winds ~195 miles  .

Lowell ~110 miles northwesterly of Lihue; hurricane winds extend ~70 miles, tropical storm winds ~195 miles.

Lowell ~145 miles northwesterly of Lihue; hurricane winds extend ~70 miles, tropical storm winds ~245 miles.

Lowell ~190 miles north-northwesterly of Lihue; hurricane force winds out to 70 miles, tropical storm force winds ~230 miles.

 

Marie is the only other storm currently close to the Central Pacific region. Post Tropical Cyclone Marie is about 780 miles southwesterly of San Diego. Wind speeds have decreased to about 40 mph; it is moving west-northwesterly at about 9 mph. It is expected to steadily weaken over the next couple of days & dissipate. This is the last public advisory that will be issued by the National Hurricane Center about Marie.

Lowell Nearing Kauaʻi & Niʻihau

There are now only 2 storms that appear on the 7-day outlook map of the Central Pacific region. Category 3 Hurricane Lowell is the one we need to be concerned about. It is currently about 325 miles south-southwesterly of Lihue & moving north-northeasterly at about 15 mph. A hurricane warning is in effect for Kauaʻi & Niʻihau where damaging winds are expected to arrive this afternoon or evening. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Oʻahu where lower speed winds are expected during the same time period. Currently Lowell has maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph with hurricane force winds extending about 60 miles from the center & tropical storm force winds extending about 175 miles. Winds are expected to gradually decrease through Tuesday but Lowell is still expected to remain a hurricane. Higher than normal rainfall is expected on all islands with Kauaʻi & Niʻihau receiving the highest amounts expected at 6" to 10". The rest of the main islands are expected to have rainfalls of 4" to 8"; my kalo will be very happy!

Marie is still around but has been downgraded to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph. Marie is about 705 miles southwesterly of San Diego & moving west-northwesterly at about 6 mph. Marie is expected to weaken steadily over the next couple of days, becoming a post-tropical remnant low on Wednesday. Its only effect on southern California has been in producing dangerous surf conditions.

Lowell Headed Towards Papahānaumokuākea

Category 3 Hurricane Lowell is now about 575 miles south-southwesterly of Lihue & about 595 miles southwesterly of Honolulu. Maximum sustained winds are about 125 mph & Lowell is moving north-northwesterly at about 5 mph. It is expected to increase slightly in forward speed & be crossing into the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument some time on Monday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in affect for Niʻihau & Kauaʻi.

Tropical Storm Karina is about 680 miles east-northeasterly of Hilo & blocking the tradewinds; it was extremely muggy when I woke up this morning. It has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph & is moving northwesterly at about 7 mph. It is expected to weaken tonight & become a post-tropical gale. This is likely the last post that will include Karina.

 

Hurricane Marie is about 800 miles westerly of the southern tip of Baja California. It has maximum sustained winds of 80 mph & is moving northwesterly at about 9 mph; somewhat parallel to the coastline. It is expected to continue weakening & become a post-tropical low by Wednesday.   

IASA #4-30

 

(L-R) Kanoa, Toni, & Jaime watch image from drone during search for missing water tank.

Lowell Still Moving Westward

The forecast track for Category 4 Hurricane Lowell now shows it passing a slight bit farther away from Niʻihau than it was shown yesterday. It is also quite a bit farther away than Lālā was from Hawaiʻi Island. At 8 this morning Lowell had maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph & was moving westerly at about 8 mph. It is about 575 miles south-southwesterly of Honolulu & about 610 miles southerly of Lihue. It is expected to make a sharp turn to the north on Sunday.

Hurricane Karina entered the Central Pacific region just before 5 am this morning. It is about 955 miles easterly of Hilo & moving westerly at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are now about 90 mph. Although Karina is expected to gradually weaken over the next 48 hours, it is still expected to maintain hurricane-force winds.

In the Eastern Pacific region, Hurricane Marie is about 550 miles west-southwesterly of the southern tip of Baja California & moving about 9 mph west-northwesterly away from land; it is extremely unlikely it will make it close to southern California. Maximum sustained winds are about 100 mph but are expected to decrease starting tomorrow.

Lowell Now Past Moku o Keawe

Hurricane Lowell is now 450 miles south-southwesterly of Hilo & 605 miles south-southeasterly of Lihue; it passed by Hawaiʻi Island some time last night. The forecast shows Lowell turning slightly more easterly as it heads north, bringing its path closer to Niʻihau & Kauaʻi early next week. Lowell currently has maximum sustained winds speeds of about 140 mph & while speeds are expected to decrease, it will still remain in the major hurricane wind category as it heads northerly.  

Hurricane Karina will likely enter the Central Pacific region some time on Friday but it is already affecting our weather. It is about 1195 miles easterly of Hilo & moving west-northwesterly at about 12 mph; it is beginning to block the tradewinds that keep us cooler. Karina is expected to maintain its west-northwesterly movement parallel to the islands as it continues as a major hurricane for a few more days.

Hurricane Marie is apparently creating anxiety in southern California. It is about 410 miles southwesterly of the southern tip of Baja California or about 800 miles from southern California. It is moving at about 10 mph in a west-northwesterly direction; so not really going inland towards southern California. The warning cone maps also show it moving away from California & also losing strength. I think people in Hawaiʻi would be happy to see a hurricane moving away from us & losing strength rather than becoming anxious about it. But then, we have had more experience with waiting it out to see what might happen.