IASA #4-30

 

(L-R) Kanoa, Toni, & Jaime watch image from drone during search for missing water tank.

Lowell Still Moving Westward

The forecast track for Category 4 Hurricane Lowell now shows it passing a slight bit farther away from Niʻihau than it was shown yesterday. It is also quite a bit farther away than Lālā was from Hawaiʻi Island. At 8 this morning Lowell had maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph & was moving westerly at about 8 mph. It is about 575 miles south-southwesterly of Honolulu & about 610 miles southerly of Lihue. It is expected to make a sharp turn to the north on Sunday.

Hurricane Karina entered the Central Pacific region just before 5 am this morning. It is about 955 miles easterly of Hilo & moving westerly at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are now about 90 mph. Although Karine is expected to gradually weaken over the next 48 hours, it is still expected to maintain hurricane-force winds.

In the Eastern Pacific region, Hurricane Marie is about 550 miles west-southwesterly of the southern tip of Baja California & moving about 9 mph west-northwesterly away from land; it is extremely unlikely it will make it close to southern California. Maximum sustained winds are about 100 mph but are expected to decrease starting tomorrow.

Lowell Now Past Moku o Keawe

Hurricane Lowell is now 450 miles south-southwesterly of Hilo & 605 miles south-southeasterly of Lihue; it passed by Hawaiʻi Island some time last night. The forecast shows Lowell turning slightly more easterly as it heads north, bringing its path closer to Niʻihau & Kauaʻi early next week. Lowell currently has maximum sustained winds speeds of about 140 mph & while speeds are expected to decrease, it will still remain in the major hurricane wind category as it heads northerly.  

Hurricane Karina will likely enter the Central Pacific region some time on Friday but it is already affecting our weather. It is about 1195 miles easterly of Hilo & moving west-northwesterly at about 12 mph; it is beginning to block the tradewinds that keep us cooler. Karina is expected to maintain its west-northwesterly movement parallel to the islands as it continues as a major hurricane for a few more days.

Hurricane Marie is apparently creating anxiety in southern California. It is about 410 miles southwesterly of the southern tip of Baja California or about 800 miles from southern California. It is moving at about 10 mph in a west-northwesterly direction; so not really going inland towards southern California. The warning cone maps also show it moving away from California & also losing strength. I think people in Hawaiʻi would be overjoyed to see a hurricane moving away from us & losing strength rather than becoming anxious about it. But then, we have had more experience with waiting it out to see what might happen. 

Lowell Now Category 5

Hurricane Lowell wasted no time getting to Category 5! By the 11 am update, Lowell had maximum sustained winds at 160 mph. It is now about 445 miles southerly of Hilo & moving westerly at about 10 mph. Though it is expected lthat the forward motion will slow down over the next few days, the forecast also says the maximum wind speed will remain quite high. The model at 11 am shows Lowell turning towards the north sooner than the 5 am models predicted.

What Is It Going To Do?

Hurricane Lowell has now become a Category 4 Hurricane on the Safir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale; it is also what is called a major hurricane. Major hurricanes are ones where the maximum sustained wind speed is over 110 mph; at 5 am this morning Lowell was at 155 mph & moving westerly at about 10 mph. It is about 455 miles south-southeasterly of Hilo. What we are watching now is not when Lowell will be passing closest to us, but when will it make that right turn & start heading northerly. The current forecast shows its potential path at about 164W longitude which should keep it far enough away to not cause severe damage to us. But if it should turn northerly earlier, say at the 160W longitude, Niʻihau & Kauaʻi would be in its path. Lowell may become stronger later today & we might have a Category 5 Hurricane. Currently hurricane force winds extend out from the center for about 50 miles, with tropical storm force winds extending about 90 miles.

Hurricane Karina is maintaining its Category 4 status with maximum sustained winds at about 145 mph as it moves west-northwesterly at about 10 mph. It is about 1455 miles easterly of Hilo & about 2 days away from entering the Central Pacific region. While Karina is expected to begin weakening, it will still be a strong hurricane for at least a few more days.

As noted in an earlier post, August is the most active month for hurricanes in the Central Pacific. September is the 3rd most active month with about 20% of hurricanes historically occurring in September. But hurricanes can't read so we will just have to see what happens this month. (FYI July is the 2nd most active month with 25% occurring in July. This year it was fairly quiet.)

Hurricane Lowell

Lowell has indeed become a hurricane overnight. It is now about 575 miles southeast of Hilo. Maximum sustained winds are about 80 mph & Lowell is moving west-northwesterly at about 12 mph. Hurricane force winds extend out from the center about 15 miles with tropical storm force winds extending out about 90 miles. The forecast is for Lowell to increase in strength, becoming a major hurricane sometime tomorrow. 

Hurricane Karina remains a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph. It is moving westerly at about 12 mph & is expected to enter the Central Pacific region on Friday.  

 

More on Lowell

There are still 3 disturbances that are being watched in regards to how they will affect our weather here. Of these Tropical Storm Lowell is the most closely watched. At 5 am this morning Lowell was about 785 miles southeast of Hilo moving westerly at about 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were about 65 mph but are expected to increase over the next day or so & Lowell is expected to become a hurricane in the next day & a major hurricane by Wednesday; which is also when it will likely be closest to us.

The disturbance to the southwest has been losing intensity & has now been decreased to a 20% chance of becoming a depression within the next 7 days. It is becoming even less likely to cause us any problems; which is good, then we can focus on Lowell!

Category 4 Hurricane Karina is steadily making its way westerly at about 9 mph. Karina's maximum sustained winds this morning at 5 were 140 mph; they are expected to gradually weaken over the next few days. At its current rate, Karina will enter the Central Pacific region early Friday morning.