Hurricane Lowell has now become a Category 4 Hurricane on the Safir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale; it is also what is called a major hurricane. Major hurricanes are ones where the maximum sustained wind speed is over 110 mph; at 5 am this morning Lowell was at 155 mph & moving westerly at about 10 mph. It is about 455 miles south-southeasterly of Hilo. What we are watching now is not when Lowell will be passing closest to us, but when will it make that right turn & start heading northerly. The current forecast shows its potential path at about 164W longitude which should keep it far enough away to not cause severe damage to us. But if it should turn northerly earlier, say at the 160W longitude, Niʻihau & Kauaʻi would be in its path. Lowell may become stronger later today & we might have a Category 5 Hurricane. Currently hurricane force winds extend out from the center for about 50 miles, with tropical storm force winds extending about 90 miles.
Hurricane Karina is maintaining its Category 4 status with maximum sustained winds at about 145 mph as it moves west-northwesterly at about 10 mph. It is about 1455 miles easterly of Hilo & about 2 days away from entering the Central Pacific region. While Karina is expected to begin weakening, it will still be a strong hurricane for at least a few more days.
As noted in an earlier post, August is the most active month for hurricanes in the Central Pacific. September is the 3rd most active month with about 20% of hurricanes historically occurring in September. But hurricanes can't read so we will just have to see what happens this month. (FYI July is the 2nd most active month with 25% occurring in July. This year it was fairly quiet.)
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