COVID-19 Exposure

Curtis called this morning with a contact tracing question; Jenny found out she had been possibly exposed to SARS-CoV-2 at a class she was at but can't get in to get tested until next week. Which would be 3 days after the last day of the 10-day quarantine. He gave me a bunch of facts but I asked him for more information. FYI Jenny was not called by a contact tracer, the organization running the class she was at called her when the Case notified them that she tested positive; they recommended that everyone get tested. 

For COVID-19 you are considered a Close Contact if during the 2 days prior to the person showing symptoms (or 2 days before they were tested if they have no symptoms) you were within 6 feet of a Case (a person who has tested positive for COVID-19) for at least 15 minutes within a 24-hour period; it does not matter if it was indoors or outdoors. If the distance & time applies to you after they were known to be positive & the Case was still in the isolation period, you are also a Close Contact. If you are a Close Contact, you should get tested & quarantine while you are waiting for the test results. If you can't get tested, you should still quarantine. This was not the case for Jenny.   

Jenny is in a gray area, Curtis wanted to know what the likelihood of her being infected was. Last Friday Jenny was sitting about 10 feet away from the Case for about 1 hour in a classroom that had a fan & open windows; everyone was wearing masks, & Jenny is vaccinated. The Case went in on Monday & was tested; her results came back on Tuesday which is when the Case contacted the organization. Jenny has not had any symptoms. Those are the only facts that are known.

I made the assumptions that the Case began showing symptoms on Monday & was able to get in immediately to get tested. If this is true, then the likelihood that Jenny has been infected is low. In contact tracing we look at the 2 days prior to the onset of symptoms (or the test date if the Case is asymptomatic) to begin compiling the list of Close Contacts; Jenny was with the Case 3 days prior to the onset of symptoms. That, plus everyone wearing masks, being more than 6 feet from the Case, & the room being not fully enclosed, decreases the likelihood of Jenny being infected.

Of course, if the Case started showing symptoms on Friday night or Saturday, that totally changes the likelihood of Jenny being infected. And even though she was more than 6 feet away, I think she should follow through with the testing which would be on Day 13 after her exposure. The previous CDC recommendation was 14 days for quarantine since about 95% of people would begin to shows signs of being infected by that time; they reduced it to the less conservative 10 days because people were more likely to comply with 10 days than 14 days. (I can't remember for sure, but I think at 10 days about 85% of people who are going to be symptomatic begin showing symptoms.)

There was a red herring that I was initially given, but I threw that out immediately. That information was that the Case had dinner with 2 friends who subsequently tested positive. That's it, no information on what date the dinner was or what date the friends tested or what the friends' other exposures might have been. Not a useful piece of information.

By the way, as I am making calls to the people who tested positive, the calls I like best are the ones to people who have a medical background. They almost always have detailed notes on what they were doing in the 2 days prior to showing symptoms or being tested. They tend to include what dates they saw people, how long they were with them, the situation; everything a contact tracer would need to do the best job at tracking down as many people as possible. They also tend to go in to quarantine as soon as they suspect they might have been exposed & try to get tested as soon as possible. Many have had to care for COVID-19 patients so they know it's real.  

Today was a Feast Day so I made a mango proothie with a mango from the CSA box. It was excellent!

Here are my seats on my flight next week. I hope it stays this physically distant way.

Going to Kona.

Returning from Kona.

For lunch I heated up my leftovers from Water Drop. I kept them in the container I got them in; it said it was microwave safe. The container did not melt or smell funny.

In the evening I took Blenda to the airport; I gave her a crown flower & tuberose lei from Le Flowers. Breanna went with us to say Good Bye to her mom. Breanna is here pursuing her doctorate in American History; she has a full-ride scholarship! Hulō! Breanna!

Blenda (L) & Breanna.

The Aix weather app forecast partly cloudy skies here, with light drizzles in the evening; it was accurate except for the drizzles. For Kapaʻau it forecast measurable precipitation throughout the day; the web cam did not seem to support that. For Marysville it forecast mainly sunny all day & dry in the evening; the camera was out so I was unable to verify that.

Kaimukī, looking westerly at 10:13 a.m.

Honomū looking northeasterly at 10:14 a.m.

Malfunctioning camera at 10:15 a.m. HST.

Nā Koʻolau at 4:48 p.m.

There was a large, magnitude 7.2 earthquake in Haiti this morning; it caused widespread damage & numerous deaths in Haiti but did not generate a tsunami. FYI We would never be endangered by a tsunami generated by an earthquake in Haiti; I just wanted to acknowledge what has happened in Haiti.

There were 791 new cases of COVID-19 reported today, bringing the total known cases to 50,355; the new case number today is about 8% higher than the average of the 3 days when the automated lab reporting was screwed up. One new death was also reported, increasing the death toll to 548; currently 7630 cases are considered active. As of yesterday, 1,797,402 doses of vaccine have been administered, making 61.2% of the population fully vaccinated; 68.9% have received at least one dose. A total of 289 cases have been hospitalized with 50 in the ICU & 38 on ventilators. The 7-day new case average for Oʻahu is 423 with an 8.3% positivity rate.  

Hauʻoli lā Hānau e Tom, Hot Dog Bruce, & Shelly! And Congratulations to Tomiko & David on their wedding today; wish COVID-19 had not interrupted my plans to be there!