My Summer Vacation: Calculating Your COVID Risk

I read about the microCOVID Project in the National Geographic newsletter that I subscribe to; it also had an article about how COVID affects reproductive health. They have developed the concept of a microCOVID as a measure of risk as in one-in-a-million chance of getting COVID; sorta like a microcurie. They have an online calculator that determines your COVID risk based on various factors including where you live. I really like that they provide you with the background assumptions they make in order to calculate the risk for the scenario. FYI The calculator has been updated to take in to account the more highly contagious nature of the Delta variant.

I went through several different scenarios to see what my risk level is at each with my specific data where applicable. Here's the step-by-step look at what it would be for me on a full plane.

The calculator automatically inserted number of people within 15 feet & duration.

I'm glad I skipped the trip to Utah last month!

I calculated my risk at the grocery store based on my normal 15 minute trip to Kokua Market. I did not figure out the risk based on the very rare trip to a conventional grocery store. I used the same "Precautions" as for the plane trip.

For dining at a restaurant with an outdoor seating area I used their assumptions for the number of nearby people & the length of time at the restaurant. I changed the "Precautions" to "Normal" talking volume. I probably won't be going to eat at a restaurant until the new case counts come down a bit.

To figure out my risk for working at the Sunday drive through testing for presumed COVID negative people, I assumed I am only close to the patient for a minute when I am collecting the test kit & the rubbish; both of these combined are just seconds but 1 minute is the shortest unit of time. I did not count the time adjacent to the other staff since we split up as soon as out time with the patient is done.

Since this is a site where people come to test if they have been exposed to someone with COVID & they are potentially positive I also calculated the risk for assisting a COVID positive patient. The only factor I changed was their COVID status. Currently the test positivity rate on Oʻahu is 5.2%.

I also calculated the risk for yesterday's vaccine outreach & education event. We spend a longer time talking to people, but we are able to stay farther away from them. Even if I multiply this risk factor by the 16 people we talked to yesterday, the risk is still very low.

It turns out I was wrong in what I thought would be my highest risk; even though we are all vaccinated it is actually at OmniTrak doing the First Contact calls! The microCOVID calculator does not have a category for it but I started with the "indoors unmasked 2 people" and adjusted the variables to fit my work situation; indoors, masked with 5 other vaccinated people in the same room 6 feet apart for 8 hours; I think it is the length of time that increases the risk. I am at High Risk averaging about 300 microCOVIDs each work day or about 50% more than the daily exposure for a one-in-a-million chance of contracting COVID-19. I guess I really should be testing at every opportunity I am given.

My Feast Day proothie this morning was made with 1/2 cup of frozen blueberries that I found buried in the back of the freezer; I had opened them, then forgot about them. Their Best By date was December 2019 so there were a lot of ice crystals in the bag, but that's okay since they were going to be blended up & I always throw a couple ice cubes in to keep my proothie cooler as I blend it. This is one of the rare times that my proothie is not green.

Last night I found out that Pastor Kevin has been holding testing & vaccine clinics at Palolo Homes for a while now; I think they are held every other week. In between, he & some helpers walk door-to-door providing information, masks, & hand sanitizer for the residents. PHNs Sumi & Whitney were there to help at the testing tent; I met them at the LCC Vax POD. Today I met RN Quincy & intern Ameena from Project Vision; there were also 2 nursing students form Chaminade University assisting with the swabbing at the test site. The vaccine clinic was across the street at the community center. I helped hand out masks, hand sanitizer, & gummi bears to people who came to get tested. There were 16 people that came to get tests.

Parking is along the street.

The guard rooster walking by the boxes of masks & hand sanitizer.

Here's my bag of handouts for people coming to test.

Vaccines are across the street at the Hale.

Yesterday my friend and fellow birder Charlie sent me a photo of a bird that he found dead on his deck; it had hit the glass of his living room window. It looked like it could be either a Swainson's Thrush or juvenile American Robin; depending on its size. He replied today that it was smaller than a robin; he will be checking the calls of the Swainson's Thrush to figure out if that was what he has been hearing in the woods below his house.

Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus).

My protein powder arrived after lunch. Also in the box was packets of Nin Jiom Pei Pa Kwa. These are individual dose packets so I will be able to throw a couple in my backpack so I can have it available with me.

For dinner I had lup cheong, kimchee, & taegu.

Kimchee from Kokua with turmeric.

Clockwise from top: taegu, kimchee, & lup cheong.

I got a text after dinner saying that my order for the Say Yes!COVID test kits had been processed. It also said it would be about a week before they arrived.

Keala was the only one of the cats that I was able to find this morning. She seems to be spending more time nearby me.

The Aix weather app forecast rain in Honolulu from the morning through the mid-afternoon, then a break until later in the evening. It was actually fairly dry until about mid-morning when there was a short drizzle which cleared up for a few hours then clouded over but did not rain or drizzle. For Kapaʻau, Aix forecast rain all day; the local paper on the other hand said scattered showers with a 50% chance of rain. The Honomū weather station showed cloudy skies but never recorded any precipitation today. For Marysville, Aix forecast partly cloudy skies all day; the traffic cam showed very clear blue skies!

Kaimukī looking westerly at 7:36 a.m.

Honomū looking northerly at 7:36 a.m.

Marysville looking northerly at 7:36 a.m. HST.

Kaimukī looking northerly at 8:32 a.m.

Palolo looking northeasterly at 12:21 p.m.

The north & east facing shores had some small surf; the other shores were fairly flat.

Laniakea (N) at 7:38 a.m.

Hilo Bay (E) at 7:39 a.m.

Waikīkī (S) at 7:41 a.m.

Waikoloa (W) at 7:42 a.m.

There were 408 new cases of COVID-19 reported today, bringing the total known cases up to 77,777. There were no new fatalities reported today so the death toll remains at 747; currently there are 6369 cases that are considered active. As of yesterday 1,984,704 doses of vaccine have been administered, providing 67.2% of the population with full vaccination and 75.6% with at least one dose. There were 265 patients hospitalized with COVID-19; 62 in the ICU and 47 on ventilators. The 7-day new case average for Oʻahu is 255 with a positivity rate of 5.2%.